Oil-exporting countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia will benefit from rising oil prices as a result of the prolonged war in the Middle East, Roberto Cardarelli, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia Department said during the presentation of the Fund's regional economic outlook, APA-Economics reports.
According to him, the IMF's alternative risk scenario envisages the war in the Middle East lasting longer than expected and disruptions to oil production being prolonged.
"Under this scenario, oil production declines by an additional 4 million barrels per day. The return of production to pre-conflict levels is delayed, and oil prices rise," Cardarelli noted.
The IMF official stated that although the overall impact of this scenario on the region would be negative, it would be positive for oil-exporting countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
"Production disruptions affect only the Gulf region, including the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, Iran and Iraq. Oil exporters in the Caucasus and Central Asia will not be affected by these disruptions and will benefit from higher prices," he emphasized.
Cardarelli also noted that although economic growth related to oil exports in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan slowed somewhat in the first half of 2026 compared to previous periods, overall growth remained resilient.
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