Party of Regions | 34.35% | 176 seats |
Bloc of Yuliya Timoshenko | 30.73% | 156 seats |
Our Ukraine – people’s self-defence | 14.16% | 71 seats |
Communist Party | 5.39% | 27 seats |
Bloc of Vladimir Litvin | 3.96% | 20 seats |
Other parties | 11.41% | 0 seat |
Total | 100% | 450 seats |
Though balance of forces allows us to say that oranges won the elections, it does not allow forming one-color government. Theoretically, bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko and bloc of president’s supporters Our Ukraine – People’s self-defence have chance to form an “orange coalition†and this is considered the most real government formula. Both blocs have enough seats (227) to form the government, but against the background of Ukraine’s realities no force except the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko regards this formula real. One of the factors minimizing the possibility of “Orange coalition†is the intention of Party of Regions to participate in government formation, the other factor is that president Yushchenko is not interested in forming one-color coalition. Victor Yanukovich’s interest in the process of government formation is objective: the party won the elections and owns the majority of seats in parliament. But though the party won 176 seats, in order to form a coalition it is obliged to cooperate with either the bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, or president’s bloc Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense. The former publicized the impossibility of this cooperation and president Yushchenko, regarding the broad coalition as guarantee of stability in the country, actually gave green light for cooperation with Yanukovich.
What caused Victor Yushchenko’s tending to cooperation with Victor Yanukovich, instead of taking interest in forming “orange coalition†as it had been expected? This is the question of the unexpected result of parliamentary election in Ukraine. Though the president grounded his position by his desire to ensure stability in the country, keeping the bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko beyond the process of government formation, or appointing Victor Yanukovich speaker of parliament may cause instability.
a) balance of forces in parliament
b) real power of political forces
c) Ukraine’s realities increase the possibility of private interests in formation of broad coalition.
Though it is not observed at first sight, the situation in the aftermath of the parliamentary elections is directly connected with the presidential elections.
The sociological inquires show that the mid rating indicator of the influential political figures of this country is to the favor of Victor Yanukovich. Yanukovich can collect 34-35% of votes in presidential elections to be held soon. His rival Yulia Tymoshenko is supposed to collect approximately close to Yanukovich. If Yulia Tymoshenko nominates candidacy, present President Victor Yushchenko will have to confess his failure in the first round. Victor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko will win license for the second round of elections and Tymoshenko will possibly win. Tymoshenko can make her votes official through “orange electorate†of President. The only factor which can give an impetus on Victor Yushshenko’s winning presidential elections is Mr. Tymoshenko’s not attending the elections. President’s keeping Yulia Tymoshenko offside and cooperating with Victor Yanukovich is realizable. The development of processes in the period between parliamentary and presidential elections can be forecasted as so:
1) Yulia Tymoshenko’s scenario- orange coalition is established in the country, Yulia Tymoshenko is appointed Prime Minister, Victor Yanukovich remains outside government formation, “orange†bloc controls parliament and government, Tymoshenko does not attend presidential elections, orange forces support candidacy of Victor Yushchenko in presidential elections. (It should be taken into consideration that Yulia Tymoshenko have not yet announced that she will nominate herself for presidential elections)
2) Victor Yanukovich’s scenario – government formation is under the control of the Party of Regions, the main posts in Parliament are under the authority of this party. If this scenario is not realized, Party of the regions can boycott activity of the Parliament. The political figures basing on oppressing by parliamentary elections held often in the country, though claim that boycotting force will lose support of public, the party of Regions have no such problem. As this party owns concrete region and concrete electorate of Ukraine.
3) Victor Yushchenko’s party – The Party of the Regions is involved in government formation, Yulia Tymoshenko’s control over government and parliament weakens, and “Our Ukraine†strengthens its positions on the account of separation, Yushchenko attending the presidential elections with the image “ person who can unite the country†gains chance to rate 2nd in the first round of elections.
Each of these scenarios can create crisis in Ukraine and results of the elections does not promise any permanent stability to this country. Continuation of crisis in government formation in the country can confront Victor Yanukovich with the pressures of opposition inside the party on the eve of presidential elections.
Loss of votes in the elections aroused dissatisfactions against the leader in the party, if Yanukovich can not insure participation in the process of government formation, it will increase dissatisfactions in the party against him. /APA/
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