Crude oil production at the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (ACG) oil and gas fields block is projected to amount to 120.1 million barrels this year, which is 3 million barrels, or 2.4%, less than the 2025 figure of 123 million barrels due to declining output, APA-Economics reports, citing the opinion issued by the Chamber of Accounts on the 2026 budget of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ).
“It should be noted that peak production at the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli field was recorded in 2010 at 303 million barrels, and a consistent decline in output has been observed since that year. Based on the data presented, production at the field in 2026 is projected to be approximately 2.5 times lower than at its peak in 2010, decreasing by 183 million barrels,” the report said.
The report also notes that a sharp drop in oil prices and the prolonged period of low prices, combined with declining production, could reduce SOFAZ revenues and potentially lead to a rapid depletion of its assets. Specifically, revenues from the sale of profit oil and gas in 2026 are projected at USD 5.03 billion, of which USD 4.2358 billion, or 84.2% of total inflows, will account for the state’s share from the ACG field.
“At the same time, an analysis of SOFAZ inflow forecasts for 2022–2026 under the category of ‘net revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons belonging to the Republic of Azerbaijan’ shows a downward trend in projected receipts,” the report emphasizes.
The document also presents actual production figures for ACG for 2005–2024 and production forecasts for 2025–2026, measured in million barrels.
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