Ukraine’s unique operation against Russia - What realities did "Pautina" reveal? -ANALYSIS

Ukraine’s unique operation against Russia - What realities did "Pautina" reveal? -ANALYSIS
# 02 June 2025 18:50 (UTC +04:00)

The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out a large-scale drone attack on five Russian strategic air bases yesterday. The attack, dubbed “Pautina,” is one of the most complex operations planned by the Security Service of Ukraine for 18 months and personally supervised by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Silent attack on strategic aircraft

During the attack, 117 FPV-type drones were directed at Russian military air bases located in Irkutsk, Ryazan, Ivanovo, Murmansk and Amur regions. The main targets of the attack were strategic bombers - Tu-95, Tu-160, Tu-22M3, as well as A-50 early warning aircraft.

The drones were transported into Russia in parts, hidden in wooden containers and delivered to areas near the bases by trucks. The drones, launched simultaneously from remote-controlled containers, attacked and destroyed the facilities in a synchronous manner.

Aleksandr Kovalenko: Bu çətin şəraitdə Azərbaycanın Ukraynaya dəstəyi  əvəzsizdir VİDEO - AZƏRTAC

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told APA that the strikes carried out by Ukraine are aimed at destroying strategic and non-production nuclear-capable aircraft used by Russia against civilian targets.

According to him, the strikes were carried out on Russian strategic aviation, mainly Tu-95MS, Tu-160, Tu-22M3 missile-carrying bombers and A-50 long-range radar surveillance aircraft: "These aircraft are part of the air component of the Russian nuclear triad and are used mainly for strategic purposes. In particular, they serve as a deterrent in the form of a nuclear retaliatory strike. However, Russia has used these aircraft as a means of terrorism in its large-scale war against Ukraine. The deep rear areas of Ukraine were hit by X-101, X-555, X-55 missiles launched by Tu-95MS and Tu-160, as well as X-22 and X-32 missiles from Tu-22M3 aircraft. These missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, residential areas and energy facilities. In other words, Russia has actually used strategic aviation for the purpose of terrorism and genocide against the Ukrainian people. That is why this operation is aimed at destroying carriers (aircraft). It should be noted that there are not many of these aircraft in Russia and they are currently practically not being produced. The Tu-95MS is not being produced at all. The Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 aircraft are being assembled at the Kazan Aviation Plant on the basis of fuselages (hulls) left over from the Soviet era. That is, this is not a complete production. These fuselages date back to the late 1980s - early 1990s. After they are used up, production will also stop. So, the loss of these aircraft is irreplaceable. Russia will not be able to restore them.

Unexpected blow

Rusiyalı ekspert Darya Qrevtsova qlobal çağırışlar, geosiyasət və  Azərbaycan haqqında danışıb

Deputy Director of the Russian Institute for Political Studies, political analyst Darya Grevtsova, said in an interview with APA, that Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian air bases in Siberia and Murmansk were unexpected.

According to her, the attack on Russian air bases with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) had an unexpected effect, especially given the remote locations of these bases – in Siberia, Murmansk: “The way this whole operation was organized, in general, I think, surprised the whole world. Everyone clearly saw that it was possible to strike military targets using a truck loaded with drones. And in general, the lack of electronic warfare in Siberia made it possible to hit these targets. But of course, as Zelenskyy said, the fact that 40 aircraft were shot down is not true - this number is actually lower. According to Russian information, only four aircraft were damaged in Irkutsk. However, the method used proved to be quite effective and showed that the war is not limited to border regions, but can also spread deep into the country – to Siberia and the Far East. This is one of the main consequences of this attack. It is clear that after this attack, the use of electronic warfare at military bases and civilian facilities located in Siberia, the Far East will begin to be strengthened. This will also create an understanding that Ukraine has capabilities in this area... Ukraine will continue to use such methods of warfare. Ukraine has thus shown that peace is impossible at the moment and there is no point in talking about it.”

1/3 of Russia’s strategic aviation has been paralyzed

В Воронеже прогремели взрывы в районе военного аэродрома "Балтимор", в  Котово дроны атаковали предприятие. » ЦЕНЗОРУ.НЕТ - Самые Свежие Новости  России Украины и Мира

According to Ukrainian officials, 34 percent of Russian strategic aviation was damaged or destroyed as a result of the operation. The total cost of damage is estimated at about $7 billion. Although the Russian side said that some attacks were prevented, it confirmed the damage in Murmansk and Irkutsk.

Oleksandr Kovalenko said that this attack was considered a particularly heavy loss for a country with a nuclear triad: “Because the operation was carried out directly on the territory of Russia. However, in this country, the special services are in full control of everything. The regime in Russia is so totalitarian that a person who comments on an anti-war post on a social network or simply likes it can be arrested within a few hours and sent to a strict regime colony. In such a country, under such conditions of control, such an operation is simply phenomenal. Such an operation has no analogues in the world. For a long time, it was believed that the highest-level special operations are carried out by MOSSAD - for example, campaigns against Hezbollah. But conducting such an operation against Hezbollah is one thing, but striking strategic facilities on the territory of a nuclear state - Russia - is a completely different level. I think that over time the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) will reveal more details about this operation. This operation is already considered an example in the history of world special services. Perhaps a documentary will be made about it and additional comments will be made.”

The beginning of a new era of hybrid warfare

Ukraine targets Russian airfields in major drone attack - ABC News

Russian political scientist Grevtsova says that the destruction of 30% of the Russian military aviation potential, as claimed in the Ukrainian media, does not reflect reality: “In fact, the amount of destroyed equipment was small. But the method they chose – namely, remotely controlled drone attacks – forces Russia to take steps that it had never thought of before. Most importantly, the issue of protection with radio-electronic defense will now be on the agenda everywhere in Russian territory – both civilian and military facilities. This will also be a signal to the world that every country – whether it is the capital or a remote region – must be ready to protect its military facilities. Because at any moment such a truck can reach any point. If we compare it with China, this is also very thought-provoking. Imagine that if China wanted to destroy the military potential of the United States, there would be countless Chinese truck drivers in the country and they could be used to carry out drone attacks, which could have very serious consequences. Therefore, we can conclude that the incident that happened yesterday and the use of these The attack method will be widely used as one of the elements of hybrid warfare in the future.

Europe supports Ukraine's strategic operations

Ukraine's attacks on Russia's strategic military bases are also being closely watched in Europe. A number of European countries assess this operation as part of Ukraine's right to self-defense and see it as an effective step in weakening Russia's military capabilities. In particular, Eastern European countries - Poland, the Baltic states - positively evaluate Ukraine's taking the initiative with this attack.

Demkó Attila a ma7-nek: Ez a háború egy vak bosszúhadjárat | ma7.sk

Hungarian security policy expert Attila Demko told APA that Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian military bases were a turning point in Europe's security architecture.

He stressed that these operations demonstrated Ukraine's self-defense capabilities and that Western support played a significant role in carrying out such strategic attacks.

"Although there is a certain degree of diversity of opinion among the member states of the European Union, the general political position is based on unequivocal support for Ukraine. The EU institutions and most member states recognize the right of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and, in this context, assess the steps taken against Russia, including the UAV attacks against military air bases located in Russia's strategic depths, as legitimate self-defense measures. The consensus that has emerged in the European security and foreign policy arena is that such operations by Ukraine are a legitimate response to the ongoing aggressive and aggressive military activity by Russia. At the current stage, the vast majority of European states support Ukraine's military initiatives in this direction," D. Attila added.

Demko also said that these attacks have exposed the weaknesses of Russian defense systems and have led to new discussions on security policy in Europe.

In this regard, Demko believes that such operations by Ukraine can stimulate the formation of new approaches to European security policy, while at the same time influencing both the regional and global security environment.

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