On October 7, the first anniversary of Hamas's large-scale attack on Israel will be marked. This surprise assault, which resulted in significant human casualties, laid the groundwork for the ongoing escalation shaking the Middle East today.
In response to the attack, which led to the deaths of 1,200 Israeli citizens and the abduction of over 200 residents, Israel launched a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip, governed by Hamas. The Hamas-Israel conflict triggered a chain reaction, drawing new regional players into the fray. Notably, Iran, Israel's main geopolitical rival, has attracted attention with its network of proxy forces established across Middle Eastern countries, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.
The most effective foreign military organization created by official Tehran, the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, is considered one of the most dangerous among them. Founded in 1982 by the Revolutionary Guard (SEPAH), the "Party of God" faced Israel during military operations known as the Second Lebanon War in 2006, achieving certain successes during those events. Under the leadership of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who has held the position of Secretary-General since 1992, Hezbollah transformed from a highly capable armed militant group into one of Lebanon’s main political parties, securing at least two ministerial positions in every new government. This group, which has created a "state within a state," acquired a substantial rocket arsenal with Iranian support during a relative period of silence with Israel, keeping northern Israel under serious threat for years.
During the military operations that began in Gaza, Hezbollah declared solidarity with the Palestinians, and it had been nearly a year since they were in a state of war with Israel. However, it is important to note that the group was engaging in a controlled escalation and was not using its most dangerous missiles from its arsenal. Despite this, more than 200,000 Israelis were compelled to evacuate from the north of the country. Meanwhile, Israel was devising plans concerning Hezbollah alongside its operations in Gaza, seeking to neutralize the threat along its northern borders and calling for the group to withdraw back to the Litani River in southern Lebanon, in accordance with the terms of the agreement that concluded the 2006 war.
Since the spring of this year, Israel began launching more concentrated and extensive strikes on Hezbollah's positions in Lebanon. September was remembered as a "month of mourning" for Hezbollah. Initially, a "decapitation strike" incapacitated thousands of Hezbollah fighters, followed by cyberattacks that involved explosions in various communication means, disrupting the group's unified command communications. Subsequently, one of the strongest airstrikes in decades targeted Lebanon, leading to the destruction of key commanders within the group’s hierarchy. Finally, the night of September 28 marked a devastating blow for Hezbollah when its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an airstrike in Beirut.
At this point, Israel is executing a plan to weaken Hezbollah's fighting potential in Lebanon, just as it has done with Hamas in Gaza. Israel, facing greater challenges in its battles with Hamas, has achieved more results against Hezbollah with less energy expenditure. Having lost nearly its entire senior leadership and experienced command staff, Hezbollah is now in a severe predicament. With limited ground operations underway in Lebanon, Israel aims to turn this predicament into a permanent defeat, attempting to erase Hezbollah as a military and political force from the map of the Middle East.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, along with the elimination of over ten SEPAH generals in Lebanon and Syria by Israel in the past year, airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and ongoing military operations in Gaza, affirm Israel's status as the primary military power in the Middle East despite global pressures. The operations against Hezbollah over the past two weeks have highlighted Israel's intelligence professionalism and technological superiority.
Viewing these developments as part of the Iran-Israel conflict, it can be said that Tehran has suffered significant military, political, and reputational losses in this escalation. The attacks on its main proxy forces and the lack of an effective response indicate Iran's technological lag behind Israel and its avoidance of a large-scale conflict.
In this context, it is likely that the number of supporters of Iran in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and other countries will sharply decrease, allowing other powers to fill the vacuum of Iran's weakened position in the region. The events of the past year also demonstrate that Israel remains the dominant military force in the Middle East and that Arab countries have been unable to form a united front against it. Future developments in the region will depend on the ground operations in Lebanon, Iran's response to Nasrallah's death, and the ongoing situation in Gaza.
Israel has already launched a limited ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to neutralize the remaining forces of Hezbollah. It appears that Israel is determined to achieve its stated objectives.
The Netanyahu government is implementing its plans step by step, disregarding pressures from any country or international organization, particularly threats from Iran. Naturally, the support provided by the U.S. plays a crucial role in this context. Washington asserts that Israel has the right to take measures to ensure its security.
Recently, Netanyahu declared that there is no point in the Middle East that the Israeli army cannot reach. It seems that Israel will not stop until it reaches those points. Currently, there appears to be no country or power in the region capable of halting Israel’s advance—neither Iran nor anyone else.
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