Fitch Solutions (FS) company belonging to Fitch Group, has maintained its growth forecast for Azerbaijan's real GDP for 2024 and 2025 unchanged compared to the previous quarter, APA-Economics reports.
FS has determined the economic growth forecast of Azerbaijan at 2.6% for 2024 and 2.8% for 2025 once again.
It has been noted that the country's main industry is related to hydrocarbons. Therefore, when assessing the risks associated with economic growth forecasts, global hydrocarbon prices are taken into account: "In the first five months of 2024, the Azerbaijani economy grew by 4.2% compared to the same period last year. This growth can be attributed, on the one hand, to the increase in global energy prices and, on the other hand, to the slowdown in inflation. Tensions in the Middle East have exerted upward pressure on crude oil prices at a time when the demand for natural gas remains strong. As a major hydrocarbon producer and exporter, this dynamic will have a positive impact on the Azerbaijani economy."
However, Fitch Solutions has indicated that despite the government's efforts in diversification, the country remains heavily dependent on the energy sector for growth: "Hydrocarbon production has accounted for 45.9% of GDP and 92% of total export revenues from 2016 to 2023."
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