The Azerbaijani government has raised its real economic growth forecast for this year from 2.4% to 3.8%, APA-Economics reports citing the Ministry of Finance.
According to the forecasts presented by the Ministry of Economy, the GDP is expected to be AZN 118.4 billion, with non-oil and gas GDP at AZN 84.2 billion. The real growth rates are projected to be 2.4% and 4.6%, respectively.
The higher-than-expected GDP production in 2023, the macro-fiscal results recorded in the first 6 months of 2024, and the global economic growth and energy carrier price expectations for the end of 2024 have necessitated the revision and updating of the macroeconomic forecasts for the current year.
According to the updated forecasts, in 2024, the real GDP growth is expected to be 3.8%, with the nominal GDP reaching AZN 121.3 billion (AZN 3 billion more than the forecast presented during the preparation of the state budget project). Additionally, the non-oil GDP is expected to reach AZN 84.7 billion (AZN 0.6 billion more than the previous forecast).
It was noted that the average annual export price of crude oil, initially set at $60 per barrel for the 2024 state budget calculations, has been increased to $75 per barrel following a review. The growth rate observed in the non-oil and gas sector during January-June of the current year is expected to continue in the upcoming months. Based on this, the forecast for the real growth rate of the non-oil and gas sector GDP in 2024 has been raised from 4.6% to 5.5%.
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