The likelihood of a devastating earthquake occurring in Istanbul is unfounded, Turkish seismologist Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy said in an interview with APA’s Istanbul correspondent.
He noted that during the 6.2-magnitude earthquake on April 23 in Istanbul, there was a fault line in the Sea of Marmara that was expected to rupture: “After the rupture of that line, the threat of a destructive earthquake has been eliminated. The talk of a major earthquake expected in the near future is merely speculation. This idea has been circulating, but it lacks scientific basis. That’s because 70 kilometers of the Marmara fault line had already ruptured—part during the 1894 earthquake and another part during the 1912 quake. There remains a 50-kilometer section that has not scientifically been confirmed as ruptured. I believe part of it is inactive, and the other part ruptured during the most recent earthquake. Even if the inactive, so-called ‘dead’ fault were to rupture, the resulting earthquake would not exceed a magnitude of 6.2.”
Şener Üşümezsoy, reminding that Türkiye lies on many active fault lines, added that the possibility of earthquakes still exists in both the eastern and western regions of the country. He also noted that some eastern fault lines extend into neighboring countries: “The strike-slip faults continue as far as Azerbaijan. These include the Eastern Anatolian and Northeastern Anatolian fault lines. While they may not consist of one large, continuous segment, there are many smaller fault lines. Earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.5 and 7 could be destructive if these lines rupture near populated areas.”
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