Baku. Vugar Masimoghlu - APA- Analysis. The Armenian leadership, issuing statements like “The establishment of any customs checkpoint on the border with Nagorno Karabakh is out of the question,” “We won’t abandon our interests in Nagorno-Karabakh for anything”, quietly agreed to the terms of joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEC) and Customs Union. The most important one of these terms for Azerbaijan was Armenia’s accession to this Union without “NKR” and Yerevan’s conviction to establish customs checkpoints on the border with “NKR”. These facts can be regarded as the biggest successes of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy in 2014. Armenia fell in this situation as a result of Azerbaijan’s successful foreign policy basing on the development of bilateral relations with all countries.
Difficult economic conditions of Armenia’s accession to the EEC and Customs Union are another issue. Armenia’s joining this union without “NKR” is a political slap as Yerevan was convicted to establish customs checkpoints on the border with “NKR”. Political weight of this step will be heavier for Yerevan than it is supposed to be. Because:
a) Armenia joined the Customs Union within its internationally recognized borders. It means that the Union members don’t recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia once more.
b) Members of the Customs Union are the allies of Armenia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Union hit one of the cards used in Armenia’s propaganda with de facto and de jure rejection of Armenia’s claims over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia always uses a simplistic propaganda thesis that “If Azerbaijan starts military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, CSTO will help us to eliminate threats to our security”. However, the terms of Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union undermines this thesis. If “NKR” isn’t recognized as Armenia’s territory, Yerevan is demanded to establish customs checkpoints on the border with “NKR”, what threat can the start of military operations in Nagorno-Karabak, the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, pose to Armenia's security? Trying to prove the opposite, Armenia will have to admit that it is an occupying country.
c) If checkpoints are established between Armenia and “NKR”, Moscow will have extra pressure on Yerevan. In other words, for some time the Kremlin will turn a blind eye to commercial and financial transactions of Armenia with the so-called “NKR” and if Yerevan exceeds its limit, Russia can raise the question of control over the activities of the checkpoints.
This dire political situation of Armenia isn’t groundless, so this situation has emerged as a result of two factors of foreign policy. These factors have formed as a result of Armenia being deprived of pursuing an independent foreign policy and Azerbaijan’s COHERENT foreign policy. Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union without the "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" and the condition that led to the actual abandonment of the claims of “NKR” are the results of official Baku’s policy with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia based on mutual interests. Azerbaijan has already managed to turn the tide in its favor by developing the bilateral relations with the member states of the Customs Union.
Today’s conditions in the name of the Customs Union dictate one issue – this union is an integration project regardless of its ultimate goal. Kazakhstan and Belarus, gave up a part of their own interest for the sake of common interests, are interested in a successful implementation of the project. Therefore, a factor of disintegration can jeopardize the future fate of the Customs Union (as well as the reputation of the initiators of the union in the international community and in the former Soviet Union). In addition, the Customs Union, unlike other military and political blocs, is a practical union and any failure in its activity will deal a heavy blow to the member states not only in the political but in the economic point of view. Therefore, Kazakhstan and Belarus always stress the importance of eliminating the disintegration factors that can disrupt the functioning mechanism of the Customs Union. Armenia has always been considered a factor of disintegration in the former Soviet Union. And the only reason that CIS, CSTO and other integration organizations haven’t given the desired results is that Armenia does not comply with these formats and despite the fact, it takes place in these formats as a satellite or outpost “state”.
Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union is just the tip of the iceberg, which includes the factors of rapid rise, deterioration of living standards and acceleration of migration. There is no doubt that these factors will disrupt the fragile stability in Armenia. All conditions are paving the way for Armenia’s opposition to hold mass protests regularly. Increase in the price of more than 1000 consumer products since January 1 can cause more terrible effect than the Spitak earthquake.
The processes happening over Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union are of importance in terms of studying and applying political theory. Despite all of these processes, balancing interests and even at the expense of compromise, we can see how an independence and consistent foreign policy will lead to success in the face of Azerbaijan or theorists, analyzing recent processes, can see how Incoherent and Non-Independent policy will lead to loss of independence in the face of Armenia.
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