Washington. N. Kazimova – APA. On February 6, the day when the U.S. implemented new sanctions against Iran, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington held a discussion titled “Dealing with Nuclear Iran: Redlines and Deadlines.” Nuclear and regional experts discussed the subject and outlined effects of the continuing sanctions on Iran, as well as the possibility of a military strike by Israel and its partners.
Dr. Andrew Kuchins, Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, answered the questions of APA’s Washington correspondent about their potential effects on Azerbaijan:
- Azerbaijan benefits from sanctions if the alternative is a military strike.
Certainly, Azerbaijan as an oil supplier benefits from the price bump in the price of oil that comes with the sanctions and larger political risk questions about Iran. As we’ve heard today, my colleague David Pumphrey said 1 mln barrels a day which is off the market from Iran is equivalent to about 3-4 billion dollars a month, that’s 40-50 billion dollars a year. That’s significant amount of money. So, there is some economic benefit.
I also think that Azerbaijan is in a very sensitive position regionally, obviously. Being a neighbor of Iran and has a strong interest in seeing that Iranian nuclear question resolves peacefully. I think, a military strike on Iran could potentially have very serious fallout for Azerbaijan, especially and obviously if there is a perception that somehow Azeri territory and/or military capabilities were somehow assisting in those that carried out the strike.
- Last year’s rumors did not help…
- I was very skeptical about the reports that were coming out the spring of last year about the so-called agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan to use some military air base facilities in Azerbaijan in the event of a military strike. I can’t believe that the leadership in Azerbaijan, despite having a very significant and important and long-term relationship, including security relationship with Israel, would find it in their interest because the possibility of responses from Iran would be very, very destabilizing for Azerbaijan.
- What was the source of those leaks? Where did those rumors come from?
- Well, I am not sure. I remember talking to a colleague of mine who said that the reporter was someone who was very much opposed to any kind of military strike, so that kind of a report of that nature, I think, heightens the concern and dangers therefrom. But again – while there is a long history of the Azeri-Israeli security relationship, going back nearly 20 years, and it’s significant, also, for the reason that I have just mentioned. Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia is complicated but I would be also skeptical that Baku would take a step of which Moscow would not support. I can’t believe that Moscow would be supportive of this kind of use of territory even in closer proximity to Russia than Iran.
- There was a report by Indian bloggers on the site of Wall Street Journal today that the Indian state-run refiner MRPL Ltd, is planning to buy more crude from Azerbaijan, among other countries, “to offset the fall in imports from Iran.” Can you comment on that?
- To the extent that Azerbaijan can be an alternative oil supplier to an Iranian, which is off the market, then there could be some gain to Azerbaijan. I am not aware as to whether Azeri oil is directly replacing the Iranian supplies to the traditional Iranian buyers.
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